Military intelligence officials in Ukraine have cautioned about the potential for Russian missile strikes on the country’s power infrastructure that could result in a scenario reminiscent of the Chernobyl disaster. Ukrainian specialists have expressed concerns that Russian attacks targeting substations connected to nuclear facilities could provoke a catastrophic event not witnessed since 1986.
Serhiy Beskrestnov, an expert in electronic warfare, highlighted the proximity of key substations to nuclear power plants, some located mere kilometers away from reactors, with certain substations positioned as close as 300 meters from a nuclear site. Beskrestnov warned that a Russian strike missing its intended target could lead to a significant disaster akin to a second Chernobyl incident.
The potential combination of Russian strikes on these critical substations, aimed at inducing a nationwide power blackout, coupled with the historical trend of missed targets by Russian weaponry, poses a grave threat, as stated by Beskrestnov. He cited previous instances where Russian military actions resulted in unintended consequences such as strikes on civilian buildings instead of military targets.
Reports suggest that Russia is contemplating assaults on electricity transmission substations vital for the operation of Ukraine’s nuclear power plants, as disclosed by Ukraine’s Military Intelligence (HUR). This strategic move is part of an effort to pressure Kyiv into acquiescing to what Ukraine deems unacceptable surrender demands.
HUR disclosed that as of mid-January 2026, Russian forces had conducted reconnaissance on ten critical energy sites spanning nine Ukrainian regions. A Telegram channel, believed to have ties to a senior Ukrainian official, indicated that Russia is deliberating on potential attacks on these facilities and the methods to be employed. The ultimate aim, the channel asserted, is to plunge Ukraine into prolonged power outages through targeted strikes.
Ukrainians have been advised to brace for potential disruptions while acknowledging the unpredictability of Russian attacks on critical infrastructure. The Telegram post also questioned the country’s preparedness to defend against such assaults on its energy facilities, particularly emphasizing the challenges faced by regions with limited resources.
Victoria Voytsitska, a Ukrainian parliament member specializing in energy and nuclear safety, expressed skepticism about Russia’s ability to simultaneously incapacitate the Rivne, Khmelnytskyi, and South Ukraine nuclear power plants, which play a crucial role in Ukraine’s power grid stability.